This book examines the economic logic of the significant variation in growth over long periods. What's necessary for the U.S. and other developed nations to realize stronger growth and more equal incomes? What's necessary for families to feel vacations, college educations, and retirements are possible? Will artificial intelligence (AI) automate or augment workers' jobs? Will the 2020-2021 global pandemic be sufficiently disruptive to deliver fundamental transformation? Economic success in the decades ahead will depend on the willingness of households, businesses, and governments to innovate and change ways of living and working. To explore these questions, the 4th Industrial Revolution is a unique frame to assess global economic transformation, providing a point-in-time reference for placing current events in the context of sustained, multi-decade periods of faster and slower growth. Political, social, and economic metamorphoses have accompanied each revolution. This book examines the economic logic of the significant variation in growth over long periods. Climate change and the global warming consequences of fossil-fuel technologies will need to bring about a new energy technology and, if successful, result in renewable energy sources, reducing energy expense. The success of the 4th Industrial Revolution is not assured. While the future is uncertain, history suggests success requires that barriers are addressed, workers and businesses engage in the necessary change, and a positive policy response provides the needed leadership. The book proposes a Growth and Fairness Agenda and a New Social Contract through which stronger economic growth and more equally distributed incomes can be possible. Recognize traditional policy actions may be insufficient to achieve stronger long-term growth. Promote improved confidence and a positive outlook among small and medium enterprises. Encourage advances in AI technology while addressing risks and fairness issues. Support deeper worker engagement between business leaders and workers. Seek a new social contract among workers, businesses, and governments.
Martin Fleming is a Fellow at The Productivity Institute, a U.K.-based research organization, and Chief Revenue Scientist, Varicent, a Toronto-based software provider. Martin is the former Chief Economist and Chief Analytics Officer, IBM.
Martin Fleming has penned an outstanding book, laying out the dynamics of the ongoing AI-industrial revolution. It deserves reading by a wide audience of economists, policymakers, analysts, and students, across disciplines.--Stuart P.M. Mackintosh, Executive Director, Group of Thirty Martin Fleming has written an engaging and important book that identifies actionable pathways for inclusive growth in the post-pandemic recovery. A must-read for anyone interested in our economic future.--Susan Lund, Vice President, Economics and Private Sector Development, International Finance Corporation, World Bank Group Martin Fleming lays out a road map for hope. He sees the potential and a way to overcome some of our largest economic hurdles.--Diane Swonk, Chief Economist, KPMG
