Nigeria matters. It is the largest African economy, projected to become the third most populous country in the world by 2050, with its democratic aspirations are challenged by rising insecurity. It is also misunderstood. Leading expert John Campbell traces the mistakes and misunderstandings of British colonial rule that forced a territory with hundreds of distinct languages, ethnic groups, and religions, no history of political unity, and no history even of similar political organization, into a single unit. After Nigerian independence in 1960, a civil war that cost the lives of one million Nigerians ended in a generation of military rule that ended only in 1999. When the military finally returned to their barracks, what was left? It was not-and never had been-a nation-state like those of Europe. It is still not quite a nation because Nigerians are not yet united by language, religion, culture, or a common national story. It is not quite a state because the government is weak and getting weaker, beset by Boko Haram in the northeast, intercommunal violence across the middle of the country, an insurrection in the Niger Delta, and a country-wide crime wave. Instead, it is something the author calls a prebendal-archipelago. It is prebendal because Nigeria's political leaders take public money for private purposes. Not only is this corruption on a massive scale, it is also what keeps a fragile state from ultimately falling apart. The competing elites who ultimately benefit also cooperate to keep those benefits coming. Much of that public money is fueled by revenue from Nigeria's state-owned oil. The oil-heavy focus of the government has stymied the development of other sectors. It is an archipelago because the state cannot be said to actually have control over much of its territory. This deeply knowledgeable book is an antidote to those who would make the mistakes of Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq, mistakes based on misunderstanding, in Nigeria. Up to now, such mistakes have largely been avoided, but Nigeria will soon-and Campbell argues already does-require much greater attention by the West. \
John Campbell is Ralph Bunche Senior Fellow for Africa Policy Research at the Council on Foreign Relations. His books include Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink and Morning in South Africa.
Leading expert John Campbell explains why Nigeria, projected to become the third most populous country in the world by 2050, is so important to understand in a world of jihadi extremism, corruption, fragile states, oil, and communal violence.
Campbell (Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink), a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former ambassador to Nigeria, documents the prospects and pitfalls facing Africa's most populous country in this well-informed and highly specialized account. Chronicling the precolonial, colonial, and postindependence periods, Campbell cogently argues that Nigeria, divided by multiple languages, ethnicities, and religions, lacks a strong national identity . . . Packed with insider details of foreign policy-making and deep dives into Nigeria's demographics and political history, this expert treatise will resonate with readers well-versed in the subject.--Publishers Weekly Drawing on his long experience, deep knowledge, and remarkable career as a diplomat, together with the rich sources of information he has gathered from scholars, public intellectuals, and activists, John Campbell provides rich insights into the social, political, and economic life of Nigeria. His perceptive analysis of the difficult terrain and multiple challenges the country has faced over its sixty years of independence make his timely book an essential resource for understanding Nigeria's place-- past and present--in the world today.--Jacob Olupona, Harvard University Nigeria is a pivotal state in Africa by virtue of its population, economic possibilities, fledgling democracy, and regional position. Yet the country has perennially struggled with political instability, economic stagnation, corruption, and internal conflict. John Campbell is among the most astute observers of Nigeria and a thoughtful voice on US relations with the continent. His prescriptions in this book draw upon realistic assessments of the Nigeria prospect and the potential of American policy.--Peter Lewis, Johns Hopkins University Nigeria, according to John Campbell, is 'big, important, and troubled.' Islands of authority are surrounded by seas of ungoverned spaces. At the heart of the Nigerian paradox is the persistence of a state that generates enormous benefits for elites while the population grows ever poorer. Campbell argues the need to 'rethink Nigeria' and calls for decentralized approaches to its multiplying travails. This timely book will be keenly read by scholars, diplomats, and the general public. They will be intrigued by an analysis applicable to many postcolonial entities in which elite predation and popular insecurity are interwoven.--Richard Joseph, Northwestern University Ambassador Campbell is an experienced US diplomat and longtime friend of Nigeria. This book provides candid insights into the dynamics, challenges, and pitfalls of Nigeria's struggle to become a cohesive twenty-first-century polity and how our bilateral relations can be strengthened. I strongly recommend it to all who wish to understand one of the most consequential countries in the world.--John N. Paden, George Mason University
