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9781442240803

Afghanistan at Transition

The Lessons of the Longest War
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This new study covers the civil and military lessons of the war in Afghanistan as of 2015, the trends at the time of transition, and the risks inherent in the current approach to supporting Afghanistan. The report focuses on the lessons to be learned from the US experience in Afghanistan to date and the problems Afghanistan faces now that most US and allied combat forces have left. The work builds on more than a decade's worth of reporting and analysis of the Afghan war. It examines the recent trends and problems in Afghan governance, trends in the fighting, progress in the Afghan security forces, and what may be a growing crisis in the Afghan economy. The analysis is supported with extensive metrics on every major military and civil aspect of the war, a detailed analysis of the fighting, and a close examination of the problems resulting from the lack of Afghan political unity, the growing Afghan budget crisis, and critical problems with power brokers and corruption.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
THE STRATEGIC VACUUM IN AFGHANISTAN, CENTRAL AND SOUTH ASIA
II. UNCERTAIN PRIORITIES FOR US STRATEGY
III. THE THREATa FROM AFGHAN POLITICS, LEADERSHIP, GOVERNANCE, AND PROSPECTS FOR STABILITY
IV. THE ANSF AND THE THREAT FROM AN INTENSIFYING CONFLICT
V. PROBLEMS IN DEVELOPING AN EFFECTIVE ANSF
VI. THE THREATa FROM AFGHAN ECONOMIC CHALLENGES
VII. REGIONAL THREATSa: THE UNCERTAIN IMPACT OF PAKISTAN
VIII. REGIONAL THREATSa: STRATEGIC MINIMALISM IN CENTRAL ASIA
IX. REGIONAL THREATSa: THE REAL US STRATEGIC INTEREST IN INDIA
X. REGIONAL THREATSa: IRAN, CHINA, RUSSIA, AND OTHER EXTERNAL POWERS
XI. US STRATEGY: CONDITIONS-BASED COMMITMENTS OR LIMIT THE US ROLE IN AFGHANISTAN AND THE REGION

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY THE STRATEGIC VACUUM IN AFGHANISTAN, CENTRAL AND SOUTH ASIA II. UNCERTAIN PRIORITIES FOR US STRATEGY III. THE "THREAT" FROM AFGHAN POLITICS, LEADERSHIP, GOVERNANCE, AND PROSPECTS FOR STABILITY IV. THE ANSF AND THE THREAT FROM AN INTENSIFYING CONFLICT V. PROBLEMS IN DEVELOPING AN EFFECTIVE ANSF VI. THE "THREAT" FROM AFGHAN ECONOMIC CHALLENGES VII. REGIONAL "THREATS": THE UNCERTAIN IMPACT OF PAKISTAN VIII. REGIONAL "THREATS": STRATEGIC MINIMALISM IN CENTRAL ASIA IX. REGIONAL "THREATS": THE REAL US STRATEGIC INTEREST IN INDIA X. REGIONAL "THREATS": IRAN, CHINA, RUSSIA, AND OTHER EXTERNAL POWERS XI. US STRATEGY: CONDITIONS-BASED COMMITMENTS OR LIMIT THE US ROLE IN AFGHANISTAN AND THE REGION
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