While coups drive a majority of regime changes and are responsible for the overthrow of many democratic governments, there has been very little empirical work on the subject. Seizing Power develops a new theory of coup dynamics and outcomes, drawing on 300 hours of interviews with coup participants and an original dataset of 471 coup attempts worldwide from 1950 to 2000. Naunihal Singh delivers a concise and empirical evaluation, arguing that understanding the dynamics of military factions is essential to predicting the success or failure of coups.
Singh draws on an aspect of game theory known as a coordination game to explain coup dynamics. He finds a strong correlation between successful coups and the ability of military actors to project control and the inevitability of success. Examining Ghana's multiple coups and the 1991 coup attempt in the USSR, Singh shows how military actors project an image of impending victory that is often more powerful than the reality on the ground.
In addition, Singh also identifies three distinct types of coup dynamics, each with a different probability of success, based on where within the organization each coup originated: coups from top military officers, coups from the middle ranks, and mutinous coups from low-level soldiers.
List of Figures and Tables Acknowledgments 1. Introduction The Importance of Understanding Coups Understanding Coup Outcomes and Dynamics Other Theoretical Explanations Background of Cases Overview of Chapters 2. Theory Coups as Battles Coups as Elections Coups as Coordination Games Conclusion 3. Counting Coups Understanding Coup Attempts Understanding Coup Outcomes Understanding Coup Levels Limitations Conclusion 4. Coups from the Top of the Military A Theory of Coups from the Top The Case of Ghana, 1975 Ghana, 1978 Conclusion 5. Coups from the Middle A Theory of Coups from the Middle Ghana, 1967 Ghana, 1972 Conclusion 6. Coups from the Bottom A Theory of Coups from the Bottom Ghana, May 1979 Ghana, June 1979 Ghana, 1981 Conclusion 7. USSR, 1991 Background Analysis Conclusion 8. Conclusion Implications for the Study of Civil-Military Relations Implications for Future Coups Implications for Policy Appendix References Index
""An exceptional and sorely needed contribution to the literature on coups... Seizing Power also represents a useful companion to the study of civilian-military relations at a more general level... Singh ultimately delivers on crafting a novel theoretical insight along with a rich, layered research strategy to bolster his claims and advance our understanding of the dynamics of coup success or failure.""
