This classic text delivers a consistent, clear method for teaching intelligence analysis, demonstrating how a collaborative, target-centric approach leads to sharper and more effective analysis.

 Robert M. Clark has more than five decades of U.S. intelligence community experience. A USAF lieutenant colonel (retired), Dr. Clark served as an electronics warfare officer and intelligence officer. At the CIA, he was a senior analyst and group chief responsible for developing analytic methodologies. He was cofounder and CEO of the Scientific and Technical Analysis Corporation, a privately held company serving the U.S. intelligence community. Clark holds an SB from MIT, a PhD in electrical engineering from the University of Illinois, and a JD from George Washington University. Beyond analyzing wicked intelligence issues, his passion is writing on the topic of intelligence. His books include Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach (5th edition, 2016), The Technical Collection of Intelligence (2010), and Intelligence Collection (2014). He is coauthor, with Dr. William Mitchell, of Target-Centric Network Modeling (2015) and Deception: Counterdeception and Counterintelligence (2019); and coeditor, with Dr. Mark Lowenthal, of Intelligence Collection: The Five Disciplines (2015). Dr. Clark also develops and teaches courses for audiences in academia, national intelligence, and the military. He currently serves as an adjunct professor at the Johns Hopkins University teaching graduate courses.

Preface Acknowledgments Part I: The Process, The Participants, and the Product Chapter 1: Introduction Why Intelligence Fails What this Book Is About Summary Chapter 2: Intelligence in the Age of Contested Norms and Persistent Disorder Nature of Twenty-First-Century Conflict Tools of Conflict Synergy of the Tools The Function of Intelligence Summary Critical Thinking Questions Chapter 3: The Intelligence Process The Traditional Intelligence Cycle Intelligence as a Target-Centric Process The Target Summary Critical Thinking Questions Chapter 4: The Customer Overview of Customers Understanding the Customer Summary Critical Thinking Questions Chapter 5: The Analyst Critical and Logical Thinking Objectivity Broad Perspective Good Instincts The All-source Analysts Role The Analysis Team Summary Critical Thinking Questions Chapter 6: The Analytic Network The US National Intelligence Network Homeland Security and Law Enforcement Military Nongovernmental Entities Network Collaboration and Sharing Summary Critical Thinking Questions Chapter 7: The Intelligence Product Intelligence Research Current Intelligence Indications and Warning What Should an Intelligence Unit Produce? Constraints on the Intelligence Product Summary Critical Thinking Questions Part II: The Analysis Process Chapter 8: The Intelligence Issue Preliminary Questions Issue Definition Issue Decomposition Summary Critical Thinking Questions Chapter 9: Target Models Modeling the Intelligence Target General Target Models Summary Critical Thinking Questions Chapter 10: The Target Framework Creating a Target Framework Issue 1: Al-Shabaab Ideology Issue 2: Influencing Azerbaijan Issue 3: The Monopolitania Biological Warfare Threat Alternative and Competitive Target Frameworks Summary Critical Thinking Questions Chapter 11: Analyzing Existing Intelligence Reviewing Existing Finished Intelligence Acquiring Raw Intelligence Evaluating Evidence Combining the Evidence Structured Argumentation A Note about the Role of Information Technology Summary Critical Thinking Questions Chapter 12: The Information Sources Filling Gaps Using the Issue Decomposition and Target Framework Identifying Gaps Developing the Collection Strategy Executing Collection Strategies Analyst-Collector Interaction Evaluating Collection Collection Requirements Summary Critical Thinking Questions Chapter 13: Denial, Deception, and Signaling Denial Deception Defense against Denial and Deception: Protecting Intelligence Sources and Methods Countering Denial and Deception Signaling Summary Critical Thinking Questions Chapter 14: Gaining Customer Acceptance Structuring the Message Presenting the Message Reviewing the Analytic Product Customer Interaction Analyst as Advocate: Getting Buy-In Aftermath: Dealing with Unexpected Outcomes Summary Critical Thinking Questions Part III: Anticipatory Intelligence Chapter 15: Anticipatory Analysis: Forces Background Forces Synergy Causal Models Summary Critical Thinking Questions Chapter 16: Anticipatory Analysis: Methodology Convergent and Divergent Phenomena The Estimative Approach Unintended Consequences Summary Critical Thinking Questions Chapter 17: Scenarios Why Use Scenarios? Types of Scenarios Scenario Perspectives How to Construct Scenarios Example Scenario: Escalation Ladders and Lattices Summary Critical Thinking Questions Chapter 18: Systems Modeling and Analysis Systems Analysis Methodology Performance Process Risk Cost Summary Critical Thinking Questions Chapter 19: Relationship Modeling and Analysis Link Models Network Models Network Analysis Summary Critical Thinking Questions Chapter 20: Geospatial Modeling and Analysis Static Geospatial Models Dynamic Geospatial Models Summary Critical Thinking Questions Chapter 21: Simulation Modeling Types of Simulations Using Simulations Summary Critical Thinking Questions Chapter 22: Prescriptive Intelligence The Process Scenarios Operations Research Simulations Prescriptive Analytics Summary Critical Thinking Questions Chapter 23: An AI-Enabled Version of the Target-Centric Approach Introduction A Possible Future Scenario Conclusion: Can This Work? Summary Critical Thinking Questions Chapter 24: Case Study: A Tale of Two NIEs The Yugoslavia NIE The Iraq Weapons of Mass Destruction NIE Capstone Critical Thinking Questions List of Commonly Used Acronyms Index About the Author